Obs-locked highs · bias-calibrated ensemble · paper signals
PAPER MODE. No live Polymarket orders. Oct 5 verification: KSFO 76 · KLAX 101 · KMIA 90 · KMDW 68 · KNYC 68.
Afternoon model = observed METAR peak (CLI basis).
Ensemble: Open-Meteo GFS/ECMWF/ICON/NBM + GFS members. Station bias from Oct 5:
KSFO models ran +8 warm → −5 corr · KLAX ran −8 cold → +4 corr when clear.
After 11 local: LOCK to obs peak.